Showing posts with label CAC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CAC. Show all posts

Tuesday, 29 June 2010

TIPPING POINTS ???????!

Overnight markets across the board saw significant moves. Chinese equities dropped sharply, the various indices posted declines of around 4-5%, this has seen follow through in other Asian indices, though not as steep as the Chinese decline. In Europe the move has seen declines of around 2 - 3% thus far, and S&P futures are currently down around 1.3%. Elsewhere global bond markets rallied, leading to a further declines in yields, with the US 10 year yield breaking below 3%. It now appears that Japan, Europe and the US 10 year government yields have all broken key levels... Meanwhile the USD has posted gains versus the Euro and the USDJPY has dropped and is moving close to the spike low posted on the night of the Flash Crash. -- Also worth noting that European spreads PIIGS v Germany have continued to back up following recent declines......
I have posted a selection of charts showing significant markets and the current move in a wider context... FWIW, I believe we are possibly approaching the end of this corrective phase on equity indices, though until the lows of late-May/Early June are clearly broken, this still has the ability to confound me and prove me completely wrong.

Monday, 31 May 2010

SP500 Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern - ????

There has been a lot of talk over the past 2/3 trading days regarding the Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern on S&P futures. Head & Shoulders patterns are one of the most familiar patterns to traders, I also know from personal experience, that they can be one of the most frustrating. Many a time I've found myself jumping on a neckline break, only to be frustrated (I've also found myself committing the cardinal sin of trying to anticipate the break). Breakout failures however can often be more instructive than successful breakouts, not only do they have a tendency to rapidly wipe out the gains(losses) of that pattern, they often move well beyond the extremes of the pattern.

I've posted 3 charts below. - The top chart is the current SPM0 intraday, showing the current Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern. Below that is two examples from the SP500 of prior Head & Shoulders patterns. The first of these two shows the recent top on the S&P500, this was a successful Head & Shoulders. The lower chart shows the S&P500 from last May/June, this appeared at first to be a classic Head & Shoulders top, however the breakdown failed wiping out any losses during the formation of the pattern and the breakout, before making further substantive gains. I believe there is a strong possibility that this recent inverse Head & Shoulders pattern may fall into the category of a failed break, which could lead to significant further losses for the SP500 and US Stocks.
Further to the above it is worth noting that the recent episode of Risk aversion across a wide range of markets, which began in late April/Early May, could be about to reassert itself following the pause/correction of the past week. A number of markets have returned to test key levels. Both the Dow Industrials and the S&P500 broke through the 200 day sma the week before last, since then they have both corrected back towards the 200 day ma. The AUDUSD (See below) appears to have completed a large 'Double-Top' pattern, breaking though the neckline of the double-top, however last week's price action saw a return to the breakout of this level. Also Sep10 Eurodollar Futures (See Below) broke down from a rising support line on the 20th May, dropping sharply to 98.865. Since then the future has rebounded to test the breakout of the rising trendline at 99.25, however the future now stands at 99.125.
There have been a number other markets returning to key break levels, including the CAC and the AUDJPY cross. Certain other risky assets have barely made a correction - EURUSD and IBEX to name but two, which really does not bode well for these two. EURUSD is back to the twin lows of mid 1.21s, and may well be breaking out of an Inverted 'Cup & Handle' pattern, I fear a sustained break through 1.2100 here could see rapid losses to 1.15/1.16 area.
I think an interesting week lies in store.


AlphaMind podcast #107 A US Navy Seal Commander, A Mindfulness Expert, and Self-Compassion

In the brutal world of trading and markets, we can often turn in on ourselves, and end up becoming our biggest problem. The ability to stay ...