EURUSD & SP500 - Interesting Junctures.

The EURUSD may be close to putting in a more significant base (at least for the next few weeks). The chart below is the EURUSD daily since early 2008. The recent price action and momentum set-up on the chart bears a strong similarity to the behaviour at the major price base in Oct/Nov 2008.
A closer look at the two bases (See below) shows an even stronger similarity between the two set-ups. This does not of course mean that subsequent price action will be the same, however it does hint that there is a risk that something similar may unfold. -- With regard to the current price action, this remains in a downtrend for now since the series of lower highs remains in place. However the break over the declining trendline of the descending triangle pattern and rising momentum patterns from oversold, suggest a strong chance that this downtrend may be broken. A break over the recent lowest retracement high @ 1.2356 should confirm the short-term downtrend is over for now.
Elsewhere similar activity across a broad range of markets hints that the episode of risk aversion may be abating. Bond yields are slowly moving higher, USD Libor has flatlined over the past week, front Libor futures have held their recent gains. In FX land USDJPY has rallied, though no doubt helped by the political situation, and AUD and CAD have also made gains. Stock Indices too made strong gains yesterday, though they remain volatile. However it is worth noting that periphery European spreads have bucked this trend by widening further over the past few days and this may still prove to be a thorn in the side of any nascent EURUSD recovery and needs watching.

One more chart which is interesting, which I will post is a comparison of the SP500 over the past year versus the SP500 2006/2007. (See below) - The similarities are stark, though as I mentioned above, caution has to be exercised as similarities can only go on for so long. The implication however, should price action unfold in a similar manor, is for a summer rally back towards the recent highs of April. Personally, as a bear on stock markets and the global economy in general I find this extremely unlikely, yet -- actually I shall say no more....