US 10 YEAR YIELD with MACD - Looking for clues.

I have been of the opinion that the US 10 year yield is heading towards around 2.20% and possibly lower for some time now. It is a topic I have covered several times in the past few months. However, a look at the MACD momentum picture, has got my attention. The yield has moved sharply lower over the past few weeks, however, the MACD has been if anything moving sideways to slightly higher. This is classic 'Bullish Divergence' [ Bullish Divergence = Lower lows in price and higher lows in the MACD], divergences between the MACD and price can prove to be very effective in identifying potential reversal in price movement. The chart below shows the current situation, with the divergence clearly highlighted. - I have looked back along the US 10 year for examples of previous price action of a similar nature.  The second and third charts below show 2 previous periods of similar behaviour from 1992 and 1995. In the 1992 incidence a sharp correction took hold pretty quickly, whilst in the 1995 incidence the yield went through a meandering bottoming process involving some minor new lows, before a sharp correction took hold. I would say that of the two, the 1995 comparison probably bears a greater similarity to the current price action.

I will however qualify the above:
    - My first qualification is that I believe momentum is always a secondary indicator, whereas price movement and trend take priority, and currently this continues to head sharply
lower. However a potential warning flag should be raised. -
    - My second qualification is by posting a chart (See Top Chart below) which completely contradicts everything I have been saying above. It is a chart of the Japanese 10 year yield from 1999 - 2001.  I have highlighted a period where a similar MACD and yield divergence took place. However, in this instance the MACD divergence failed to lead to a reversal and the downward movement in yield actually accelerated (This also shows my point above regarding price trend taking priority over momentum). - What is also a little scary is that the period from 1999 to 2001 on the Japanese Yield chart bears an uncanny resemblance to the period on the US 10 Year Yield chart from late 2008 to the present. 
    - My third qualification comes from looking at the Weekly chart with MACD (See Bottom Chart below). On the two previous occurances of daily Bullish MACD divergence, highlighted above (1992 and 1995), the weekly Yield and MACD were also Bullishly diverging, however this is clearly not the case on the current weekly chart, where MACD continues to head lower with price.

In summary the situation is thus; the MACD indicator is posting a possible warning sign that a reversal or correction may be due, however the indicator can occasionally give a false signal, in those cases the price or yield will fall to a significant new low, this may be one of those occasions.

Posting contradictory analysis is perhaps not to helpful on the face of it, however I think it important to present arguments for and against. Knowing both sides I believe makes analysis of the market and final decision making more robust. My preferred analysis, is that US 10 year yield will continue to head lower, though a sharp correction is possible. A failure to post a sharp correction, or a correction cut short, could however see  yields not only head lower, but could see a move towards a collapse type situation. We live in  interesting times.