Tuesday 28 September 2010

SP500 - Failure at 1150?

We have seen a lot of noise on the equity indices these past few days, one of the indices I have been watching is the Bank Index, this has been lagging the recent rally in equities, last week this produced a bearish 'Three Black Crows' Candle formation, Friday's move only managed to return to the middle of this pattern, whilst yesterday produced a 'Bearish Engulfing Day', this keeps the near-term picture bearish on the Bank Index.

With regard to the SP500, the 'Rising Three Methods' formation which I mentioned yesterday on the SP500 was null and void following failed confirming follow through. This also backed away from the 1150 resistance, just a reminder I had 4 different signals acting as Resistance here at 1150 on the Daily SP500. The chart below shows three of these. 1) The Horizontal Line drawn from the Jan 2010 highs. 2) The Mid Line on the Andrews Pitchfork. 3) The top of the Rising Channel which has largely contained price action over the past 5 months, and which is projected from resistance and support form 2009.  The 4th resistance level is the 2/3rd retracement of the decline from April to the June low, which also occurs at 1150.

Also worth noting that the Nasdaq Composite has hit the 2/3rd retrace in the past 2 days as have the NYSE index, whilst the Dow Industrials has hit the 76.4% retrace. The confluence of these key levels as resistance may yet prove to be significant. moving back to the SP500, as long as the 1150 resistance holds firm, my stance will be neutral, a break back through last weeks low at 1118 would however be a bearish setback.

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