Still nothing resolved on the SP500

Last week's very aggressive move on the SP500 has taken this back to near the top of the range of recent months, but as far as I see this it has not resolved anything, the market still continues to gyrate within a broad band with little or in fact no direction. Myself I prefer not to commit too much to this market until or unless I see favourable opportunities. - The bigger picture weekly chart below shows this recent range. I have highlighted two of the features which may provide some clue as to future direction. Firstly the large potentially bearish 'Broadening Pattern' on the SP500, this in my opinion is the dominant feature, thus far the S+P continues to consolidate in the lower half of this pattern, which is a slight negative, though it has not yet been able to push  lower through the base of the bigger pattern and it remains possible the SP500 could still push to the upper part of this pattern. - Another feature of this chart is the Bullish 'Falling Wedge' pattern, which continues to exert its influence, the past two weeks have seen a test of the upper line (support) of this pattern, with a solid rejection sending this higher. 

The following chart is the AUDJPY this is one of my favourite barometers of risk, the big picture on this also continues to show a potential bearish 'Broadening Pattern', this too has continued to consolidate in the lower half of this pattern, a potentially bearish development. Also noteworthy is how the AUDJPY has developed as a 'Symmetrical Triangle' pattern over recent months, it is worth keeping an eye on this, as a sustained break on either side is likely to point the way ahead. (Note: Symmetrical triangles tend to be continuation patterns, however this is usually the case within a trending move, and since this is not a trending move, there is probably a pretty equal chance as to which side of this pattern this breaks out). - One thing which appears apparent, is that this Symmetrical Triangle is coming to a head, last week it touched the upper line, whilst the prior week it bounced from the lower line, I think if this is going to make a meaningful breakout, then this may happen in the next couple of weeks.

One final matter, with regard to US equities, the Yelnick blog carries an article regarding seasonality (which can be seen here). The article refers to September historically being the worst month for Stocks, although the first three days of the months have historically been very strong, which considering how the first three days of September went last week, could make things interesting.