Thursday 4 November 2010

SP500 further gains and USD further weakness still on the cards.

QE is now done and dusted, the market was not disappointed, and the green light has been given for equities to rally and the USD to weaken further. On the face of it, that is how it seems, and until I see anything to tell me otherwise I think that is the way forward for now. -- I say this as someone who does not look through rose-tinted glasses and think everything is alright for now, far from it, I think dark times lay ahead. The US economy as well as most other major western economies are in a mess caused by such excessive levels of debt, that it will takes years, perhaps tens of years to work off. - The ideal would be for moderate levels of inflation to ensue for a number of years, not too hot/not too cold, but enough to raise asset values, whilst growth increases employment, and consumers, governments and municipals are able to repay debt and banks continue to repair their balance sheet. At the same time the emerging or emerged economies can continue to grow, whilst their currencies revalue over time and the world starts to re-balance.  At which point all the fairies at the bottom of my garden could hold a little party and perhaps invite Father Christmas.....

As I stated above, there seems little in the wake of the way the market has reacted to the QE announcement thus far to alter my short-term view, the SP500 has run into the consolidation zone from April this year, which may provide some resistance, but I see little else currently standing in the way of higher equities levels right now. 

GBPUSD FX still seems on course for an attempt at the 1.6700 area, as per Tuesday's analysis. The Cup and Handle pattern has held the 1.6000 line (despite a brief intraday dip below), and looks to be following the textbook behaviour of this pattern. - See chart below - The text book pattern and Tuesday analysis can be seen here. 1.6000 should now act as solid support; much below there is likely to be indicative of a failed breakout.


The weekly chart is also supportive of this move (See chart below).  Note, there is heavy resistance from a number of sources around 1.6700, if GBPUSD reaches these levels this will likely be a major battleground between further gains, and a correction all the way back to 1.6000.  

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