Fx Update - S&P Long-term Candles.

EURUSD fx

The EURUSD failed miserably close to, but not at the 1.4285 level is was looking for as a key pivot. Since then it has sharply returned to test the prior breakout level in the low 1.4000s. 1.4000 - 1.4300 is broad pivotal range for the EURUSD moving forward. - A clear break below 1.4000 would now kill the upside view in my opinion, leaving open the possibility of a serious correction, at a probable minimum to the mid 1.3000s, and a move much below there opening the possibility of a much deeper move. - On the other hand 1.4000 holding, keeps the upside to the high 1.4000s very much in sight, though a break soon over 1.4300 will need to occur.

GBPUSD fx

Cable failed even more miserably than the EURUSD.  Price action has been messy between 1.6000 to 1.6400, with a minor break below 1.6000 thus far.  I am uncertain on GBPUSD direction in the wake of this price action, and will wait on the sidelines before expressing any thoughts on this.

SP500 - Long-term charts.

I have not really commented on the SP500 for some time. I am planning to focus on this a little more in the coming weeks. I have started by looking at the long-term picture. The first thing that jumps out at me is that this wild month may be about to produce a rare monthly 'Hanging Man' Candle pattern . These candles can be significant, suggesting strong selling pressure during the period concerned, but equally a strong recovery. They tend to be pivotal, though subsequent price action has to be considered to determine their effect, this means they raise warning flags, as opposed to giving a clear signal.  I have looked back over the S&P over the past 40 years to see the effects of previous candles. The top chart below shows the S&P500 since the last 1960s on  LOG-SCALE (Which allows earlier price action to retain a greater perspective). I have identified 8 prior Hanging Man candles, (The criteria was that they had to occur after or during a significant uptrend, and had to be sufficiently large relative to the price action around them.). The first chart
highlights this potential candle formation.

The next chart shows the S&P500 over the past 40 uears on a Log Scale, with the 'Hanigng-Man' Patterns highlighted.

Zooming in slightly to see the examples in more close-up detail. The chart below shows the period in the first half of the above chart. The 4 occurrences in this period saw 2 reversals, 1sideways range, and 1 very sharp rally.

The next chart shows the close-up look for the second period of the upper chart. The 4 occurrences here saw 2 significant advances, though 1 occurred after a misleading correction, and 2 very significant corrections, but on both these occations the high was re-tested first.

The point of what I am saying here is not to provide clues as to where we head, rather to say that a flag to a possible significant move higher or lower starting in the next couple of months may be being raised. - Note however that the hanging man has not yet been confirmed, it will depend on Thursday's close, however, it will need a large move from here in the 2/3 days to change this. - Saying that, and given how this month unfolded, one can not discount a large move in the next 2/3 days.......