Wednesday 27 April 2011

GBPUSD seems to be heading for 1.7000/1,7200

Last week GBPUSD finally broke above the congestion area which has been constraining it over recent weeks. It is my opinion that so long as it can now hold over 1.6300 (with the usual caveats of short term dips below), then I believe it is headed for a move to the key pivotal 1.7000/1.7200 area.

The monthly chart below shoes how pivotal the1.70/1.72 area has proved over the past 15 years: Areas such as these often have an almost magnetic affect.

The weekly picture backs up this view (see below).
  • GBPUSD broke above a strong declining resistance line in early Feb and has since been battling to consolidate that break, whilst at the same time mostly remaining above the line, which has now switched to support.
  • In addition the pattern formed over the past 6 months appears to be a 'Cup and Handle' type pattern, with the past two months forming the handle to this pattern. This suggest that the breakout of the past couple of weeks may be meaningful, with 1.6300 now switching to significant support, and upside targets in the low 1.7000s. 
Thus as long as 1.6300 can hold (minor and short-lived breaks excluded), then I think the odds favour further upside in coming weeks.

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