EURUSD Triangle update.

The breakdwon fromt he triangle, which I highlighted a couple of days ago has occurred. BUT I am not at this stage convinced that it will be maintained. Re-tests of breakouts of patterns are not unusual, however such sharp breaks, then quick rebounds in my experience are. I will not draw too many conclusions at this stage, but I am watching for a heightened risk that this is a false break. - False triangle breaks can be great trading opportunities: A move over the apex could be a sign that this is a false break. The approx apex of this Triangle is 1.4330, a clean and sustained break through there, which would also mean the closing of the Friday/Monday Gap 1.4274/1.4230 would strongly favour that we have a false break. False triangle breaks often see strong moves in the other direction, suggesting a reasonable chance of a sharp move towards the high 1.4000s, perhaps 1.4800.

It is also interesting to get a perspective on exactly how much damage the Greek debacle has done to the EUR v the USD. Below is a chart of the 10 year Greek Government Bond yield over the past 3 years versus the EURUSD.  Whilst the Greek debacle has no doubt affected the EUR , its actual values versus a range of major currencies (with the exception of the CHF) has not been significantly adversely affected over the course of this year.