USDJPY continues to consolidate just above the 95 week moving
average. Previous posts (See initial post here) have highlighted how on the 4 previous occasions
in the past nearly 3 decades that USDJPY has broken up above the 95 week simple moving average, it made significant
further gains in the ensuing months.
In all cases a consolidation
first occurred around the break lasting around 4/5 weeks before the larger
rally started to occur. - The current consolidation which started around a week before first breaking through the SMA has now filled this consolidation criteria pretty much (See charts below), which may mean we are close to further significant gains in the weeks/months ahead. However I still would not rule out some further choppy action with a possible re-test of this 95 week simple moving average in the mid 81s.(Particularly as I still favour some consolidation over the next few weeks on the S&P, with a possible test into the 1370s, before further likely gains),
I always have a caveat, and that is that previous performance is no guarantee of repeat behaviour. My stop on this would be a meaningful break back below 80.
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