Monday 25 June 2012

Would you participate in a Ponzi Scheme, if you felt you were likely to win?


This is not a morality test, rather a question of curiosity. - The reason I ask is this is exactly what is occurring further East. -  A recent article in the Baltic Times http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/31380/ talks about a new scheme run by Sergei Mavrodi who ran an infamous Ponzi scheme in the 90s in Russia which defrauded thousands of investors out of their savings.

Last year, Mavrodi announced a new project, ‘MMM-2011’, however this time he stated boldly that it would be another 'Ponzi scheme'. The website for the scheme declares “Even if you strictly follow all instructions, you can still lose”.  And on the Rules page http://i-mmm.com/en/info.php he blatently defends 'Pyramid Schemes' applying a somewhat skewed and nuanced to say the least justification. However, according to the article, more than 35,000,000 people have joined the scheme, though the article does not state where they have this number from, this number in itself could all be part of the confidence (con) trick . 

This sort of scheme is clearly immoral, designed to enrich its owner and his cronies, and with absolutely no concern or regard for the investors further down the line who will lose their hard earned savings.  However, if its claims are to be believed and millions of people appear willing to participate in it, it does cause me to ask a number of questions?
  • Are they deluded, not fully aware of the risks of what a Ponzi scheme really is? (I would think there are few people in the world left who do not know what one is)
  • Are they fuelled by greed and willing to take the risk? (If so is Greed just part of Human Nature?)
  • Is fear of missing out driving them? (Regret Theory – If my friend or others I know make money and I do not, then I’ll be sorry.) 
  • Do people see it as a low payout/ high return’ lottery’ and are they therefore willing to participate on that basis, knowing there is a risk they could lose?
  • Further to this last point - Are people so distrustful of legitimate financial organisations, and is the view that the financial markets are a casino anyway, leading people towards participation in this scheme?
  • Again, building on that last point: Hypothetically (and in the absence of regulators) could a similar scheme work in the West? -Despite the events of recent years - financial institutions are probably more trusted than in Russia and parts of Eastern Europe.   
  • Is life a gamble anyway, and if so are people willing to takes gambles given the opportunity? (Note the rise of online trading and gambling throughout the world)
I am sure there are a myriad of questions which could be asked, and many different answers?

Indeed a further question which springs to mind : - How much intervention should the authorities be tasked with having? Personally this scheme abhors me, yet at my core I am a libertarian (but not a liberal), yet I do think people need saving from themselves. Should we try and achieve that balance, and if so how do we achieve that balance?

How many ‘cans of worms’ have I just opened?!?! (Rhetorical question)

– Anyway I would be keen to hear any responses. – I will be posting this a discussion on my linkedin groups ‘Trader, Trading & Risk Psychology’ and the excellent linkedin group  ‘Behavioral Finance: Theory & Practice’, which are ideal platforms for discussions of this nature.

1 comment:

  1. @hedgefundinvest14 July 2012 at 23:51

    I wouldn't on a normal basis. Anyone playing would need an edge to win consistently.

    ReplyDelete

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