Tuesday 31 August 2010

Hhhhmmmmmm Getting Interesting.

Well, after a day away from the market (UK Public holiday yesterday), it appears as if Friday's moves never happened. The SP500 rapidly gave up Friday's big jump, as did the EURUSD, and the JPY crosses (Seems like the BOJ are not really interested in a stronger JPY). -  Last week I had been highlighting some bigger picture bearish patterns across a number of markets: US Equities with the huge multi-month 'Broadening pattern', the same on the AUDJPY cross as well as the symmetrical Triangle over recent months, and the recent Head + Shoulders patterns on the EURUSD within the bigger picture Bearish trend. - The 4 charts below highlight these bigger picture set-ups: The first chart shows the big Broadening Pattern on the SP500, the second chart shows an Andrews Pitchfork on the EURUSD, which highlights the bigger downtrend (Credit for highlighting this AP to the excellent Chartramblings blog), the third chart shows the recent Head + Shoulders pattern on the EURUSD and the final chart shows the big bearish Broadening Pattern on the AUDJPY and the recent Symmetrical Triangle.
(CLICK ON CHARTS TO ENLARGE)


Against all these were shorter-term price action which suggested possible short-term reversals, which I hinted could morph into bigger corrections. - I discussed the SP500 on yesterday's posting (see here), the EURUSD had been struggling to make a clean breakdown of the recent short-term Head + Shoulder pattern, the right side of this pattern has unfolded as a 'Falling wedge' pattern and the recent low occurred with Bullish Momentum Divergence (See above). Meanwhile the AUDJPY continues to consolidate within the range of the past couple of months, and last week bounced off the support from the symmetrical triangle line near 74.00.  --- The quick failure of these markets to maintain Friday's rally, leaves these shorter term scenarios in a very weak position. Unless these markets can hold on close to current levels and start to rebound in the next few days, then I fear that we could see some real ugly price action soon with the bigger picture trends coming into play.  


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