USDJPY BASE - FAILING, and EURUSD update.

Over the course of recent weeks I have suggested that the USDJPY may have been basing, however price action over the past week leads me to think that this call was wrong.

The chart below highlights this: Of note are the :
Failed Head & Shoulder breakout: - This has implications, particularly if the low of the right shoulder is breached (around 80.90ish).
Possible Bearish Continuation Triangle: - This is still forming, so not yet confirmed, a sustained break through approx 81.30 would strongly favour this.

The downside triangle target would be around 77.50/78.00. However there is very strong support around the key 80 area (Psychological and previous lows from 1995 and 2010. , and at 79.00 from the declining monthly support line from 2004.


One final note on the USDJPY, which adds to my conviction of the bearish side of this trade: In the past few weeks Japan Long-term Sovereign debt was downgraded by both S&P and Moodys, despite this the JPY has remained strong versus the USD. This suggests that uncertainty around this issue is now on the back-burner, which seems to be JPY favourable as opposed to detrimental.

I can not rule out that all this price action may still be part of a very erratic and larger base, however I am saying what I see right now.

EURUSD update: - The CUP & HANDLE Pattern conviction from my last few posts continues to grow. Key for this view will be price action around 1.3850. Some profit-taking would be expected here, however what happens in the wake of that will be key. A sustained break could see this soar, a failed break however could put the nail in the coffin of this. - Also bear in mind that just above 1.3850 is a significant declining resistance line around 1.3950/75 which could also be key (See below).