EURUSD at Inflection point?

My trading , rather like my views, has been a touch erratic over the past few days, often when this occurs to me, I try and stand back an understand why this happens, and whether this is indicative of anything. What I thinkis occurring is that the market is at one pretty pivotal inflection point encompassed pretty much by last weeks 1.4050/13750 range. This leads me to sense three possible scenarios ahead.

1) Sustained break over 1.4050, leading to a relatively rapid move to the high 1.40s.
2) Sustained break below 1.3750/1.3800 leading to a continually lower trading range in the low to mid 1.3000s, and possibly lower in time.
3) An extended range trading approximately between 1.3750 - 1.4050, before a breakout or some sort in either direction, possibly along the above lines, but may need re-evaluating.

I still hold out the greatest likelihood being the first one, spurred on by the Cup + Handle pattern of I have alluded to in recent weeks. Although the breakout line was re-breached (as I alluded to last week) , in the big picture, it was almost a rounding error. I have also mentioned in the past how the breakouts of these can be torrid affairs, and this one seems no different. However, the longer it struggles with this breakout, the greater likelihood this has failed.

The likelihood of the move lower in my mind whilst the least likely option, is still a decent possibility and should not be excluded. The 1.4050 resistance, represents the upper boundary of a possible downtrend, and daily momentum has diverged bearishly. However, failure to follow through last week, and the Friday's subsequent rebound have not done this any favours.  

Finally the range trading option is also a strong possibility. Inflection points can become extended ranges, as the bulls and the bears slug it out. I personally hate trading ranges, but for some it will represent a great trading opportunity.