Is JPY finally about to weaken?

It appears as if the low yielding currencies may be finally losing their lustre. Yesterday I highlighted the risk of a turn in EURCHF, today's chart is USDJPY. Whilst a full reversal is still in questionable, the signs are increasingly lining up to suggest something may be occurring.

The top chart shows the monthly USDJPY, the biggest possible signal is the large Hammer candle produced last month. Hammer candles are not confirmed as signals until subsequent price action acts in a way to suggest that a trend change is happening. That of course is the technical analysts luxury, they don't have to place the trade, whereas the trader has to place a trade, the trader can not wait for confirming price action, (he can, but may miss a big move and/or be left with a far less favourable risk/reward scenario).

A couple of very big levels to watch on the monthly chart: 

• 84.82 : This is the low from late 2009, this acted as a firm cap from late 2010 through early this year.
• Above there it gets interesting in the low to mid 87s. This is where the 21 Month SMA starts to intersect, this is significant to the extent that in over the past 30 years a closing monthly break of the 21 month SMA has always lead to a continuation of the move in subsequent months. - see second chart below.

The third chart shows the weekly USDJPY:

• Once again we have a clear Hammer candle. subsequent price action this week has suggested this may be significant, a clear break above the key pivot at 84.82 will likely confirm this.
• The past few months may have seen a triple bottom formation, which is a key reversal pattern. (I have ignored the spike low for the sake of this).
• The past few months have also formed a triangle, the breakout, together with the spike, has in my opinion been rejected, and therefore increase the possibility of a breakout on the other side. This has occurred intraday thus far, but will need to occur on a longer-term basis to be valid.