I will be brief.. I think a major bear market lasting through next year is highly likely....with a possible return to 2009 lows.
But for now - I am wondering if a temporary bottom may soon loom. Fear seems overwhelming at present and it will be very hard to actualy nail a low....- but I think a temporary low could be close... SP500 cash - 1174 is a big level for me....WHY 1174
- It was big support in q4 last year..
- It was also the rebound level after the flash crash..
- And guess where the 'Fibonacci extension' of the May top / June Bottom / and Jul rebound top is ?? 1174.4...
1180/1220 was major resistance area Apr top last year...
1190 is 50% correction of July 2010 to May 2011 Rally,,,
Also 1166 if 61.8% correction of Sep 2010 rally..
So if any sort of rebound was to occur it would be in my mind from 1170/1190 - with 1174 being the main area,,,,
AUDUSD has moved back down to 1.04 where major support held over recent months....- Certainly worth banking some profit there if you were short (I think) ..
.png)
.png)
What's your temporary upside target Gooner?
ReplyDeleteWhat's your temporary upside target Gooner?
ReplyDeleteMarket is too fluid at moment,for me to suggest that.. I'd wait for Monday's reaction from the downgrade before I make any further predictions...
ReplyDeleteIt will be interesting to see how the market reacts... Will it be a panic drop, or a 'sell the rumour buy the fact' response. All eyes on the early part of next week...My own feeling is it could be the 'Sell rumour, buy fact response' after an initial drop, but in the current fragile state of the markets, who knows? Personally I think the rating agencies are always well behind the curve, though there will be some implications, their reaction is rarely a driver of events but more a response to events. - In the bigger picture, I think markets are likely to continue lower, though perhaps after some pause/rebound .. I think the continued global deleveraging will continue for a number of years, whether voluntary of forced, and this will continue to have a deflationary pull on markets, unless of course central banks somehow manage to inflate it away, with untold amounts of QE with all the massive risks this would entail..