The original call with charts was here. It called for some consolidation over a few weeks around the 95 week moving average (I have used 470 day as a proxy on chart below), ideally however it would remain above the 95 week on a weekly closing basis. Although, the close below the 95 week SMA was only marginal at this stage, in none of the previous 4 examples of this did it close back below the line on a weekly basis. If it is to return back to the recent highs, and move higher, it needs to make a move and a big one this week, currently I would say there is a high risk that this call turns out as a failure.
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Hi Steven,
ReplyDeleteThanks for posts with historical data on USDJPY. My hypothesis was slightly different and was waiting for USDJPY to come down to 80.5-81.75 location
http://www.atraderjournal.com/2012/04/usdjpy-1st-correction.html
Anyhow my assumptions about market starting new up leg also will go out of the window if there is not a strong bounce in next few days or if market picks up steam below 79.
Regards,