‘Lies, damned lies, and statistics’: Forecasters are never wrong - Even when they are wrong.

Ok so this is not about trading or investing, but how easily could we apply the following to the many market forecasters, predictors, gurus and scribblers.

The following is taken from an article on the BBC website in relation to the appalling medium-term/long-range forecasting record of the British Meteorological Office (The Met Office). Full article can be seen here:  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-21967190.

To summarise; last spring the UK suffered a switch from extremely dry almost drought-like conditions to incredibly wet with heavy downpours and seriously flooding. The Met office had stopped publishing long-range weather forecasts after a series of terrible high-profile failures in recent years; however they continued to publish ‘secret’ advisories to government contingency planners. – The article relates to the prediction for spring last year, issued in March. The 3 month advisory stated:

•  "The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier than average conditions for April-May-June, and slightly favours April being the driest of the three months.”  

Fast forward over the next 3 months, and these were examples of newspaper headlines:

• ‘Wettest April in the UK for over 100 years’
•  ‘Areas of UK see three times their average rainfall in spring’
•  ‘UK environment agency: Three months April to June - More rainfall than at any time since records begun.’ (Which was in 1910).

A failing that is so completely obvious, that to even try to deny it would just be incredulous. – And yet, full marks to the Met Office’s chief scientist Prof Julia Slingo who says:

•  ‘Last year’s calculations were not actually wrong because they were probabilistic’.

Hhhhmmmmmm. Let’s just repeat the first part of that quote:  ‘Last year’s calculations were not actually wrong’. 

  – It remains me of a wonderful quote by Charles Darwin: ‘A Mathematician is, a blind man, in a dark room, looking for a black cat, which isn't there”.

It might just be more sensible for them to admit that Yogi Berra is right: 

Finally - In keeping with the theme. - Here is a fantastic video clip called 'African Rain'. Try listening to it first without watching. - Then watch it.

'Rain_Rain_Rain' image courtesy of Christian Southworth / FreeDigitalPhotos.net.