Monday, 13 May 2013

Is the AUDUSD in the early stages of turning UPDATE?

I posted an article in Feb questioning whether spot AUDUSD FX was in the early stages of turning lower, that article can be seen here . At the time Spot Aussie had just broken below 103.00 and was heading to the major support at 101.00, this was tested but the market held, and subsequently  rebounded to the top of the large sideways range which has been in place since the middle of last year. Last week however the market finally broke down through the 101.00 key support area. The upper 2 charts show the update of the 'Descending Triangle' type pattern which we highlighted back in Feb on the long-term charts, together with the weekly chart showing the breakdown. This would appear to be a significant move, occurring as it did on high volume (See lower chart) would appear to support the idea that this is part of a move which may have 'legs'.






Significantly there are fundamental elements which have been occurring which support the idea of a generally lower level for the AUD versus the USD. The past 2 months have seen a narrowing in the spread between Australian and US 2 year government bond yields by about 50 bps.  Last week's saw the Australian Central Bank cut rates by 25bp, and produce a report that growth is likely to disappoint going forward. - Further to this, general weakness in commodities in recent months, and the continuing story of slower growth in China, form a negative backdrop for the Aussie Dollar.

Where may all this be heading? 

The drop below 101.00 is seeing the market now flirting with the psychologically important 100.00 level. - If the market can sustain a general hold below 101.00 (I would not be surprised to see this level re-tested at some point), then I could see the market make an eventual attempt on the support area from 94.00 to 96.00. - My hunch would see even lower levels at some point, though a clear move through 94.00 would probably come after a bounce from that 94.00-96.00 support area.

1 comment:

  1. Hi Steve, interesting thoughts as usual. Looks like you are in good company:

    http://www.etftrends.com/2013/05/australian-dollar-etf-tumbles-as-soros-druckenmiller-turn-bearish/

    ReplyDelete

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