Following the dramatic turn in the markets over the last 24 hours. (Which included an over 7% decline in the Nikkei - After an 85% rally since October's low) - I am reminded of Dannis Gartman's Trading Rules - Rule Number 11 in particular rule number 11. Respect "outside reversals" after extended bull or bear runs. Reversal days on the charts signal the final exhaustion of the bullish or bearish forces that drove the market previously. Respect them, and respect even more "weekly" and "monthly," reversals.
For those of you not familiar with the rules. - Here they are:
Dennis Gartman’s ‘22
Rules of Trading’. (As of Sept 2010*)
*The
rules are periodically updated
1. Never,
under any circumstance add to a losing position.... ever! Nothing more need be said; to do otherwise will eventually and
absolutely lead to ruin!
2. Trade like
a mercenary guerrilla. We must
fight on the winning side and be willing to change sides readily when
one side has gained the upper hand.
3. Capital
comes in two varieties: Mental
and that which is in your pocket or
account. Of the two types of capital, the mental is the more important and
expensive of the two. Holding to losing positions costs measurable sums of
actual capital, but it costs immeasurable sums of mental capital.
4. The
objective is not to buy low and sell high, but to buy high and to sell
higher. We can never know what price is
"low." Nor can we know what price is "high."
5. In bull
markets we can only be long or neutral, and in bear markets we can only be
short or neutral. That may
seem self-evident; it is not, and it is a lesson learned too late by far too
many.
6.
"Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain
solvent," according to our good friend, Dr.
A. Gary Shilling. Illogic often reigns and markets are enormously inefficient
despite what the academics believe.
7. Sell
markets that show the greatest weakness, and buy those that show the greatest
strength. Metaphorically, when bearish,
throw your rocks into the wettest paper sack, for they break most readily.
In bull markets, we need to ride upon the strongest winds... they shall
carry us higher than shall lesser ones.
8. Try to
trade the first day of a gap, for gaps usually indicate violent new action. We have come to respect "gaps" in our nearly
thirty years of watching markets; when they happen (especially in stocks) they
are usually very important.
9. Trading
runs in cycles: some good; most bad.
Trade large and aggressively when trading well; trade small and modestly when
trading poorly. In "good times," even errors are profitable;
in "bad times" even the most well researched trades go awry. This
is the nature of trading; accept it.
10. To trade
successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a technician. It is imperative that we understand the fundamentals driving a
trade, but also that we understand the market's technical. When we do, then,
and only then, can we or should we, trade.
11. Respect
"outside reversals" after extended bull or bear runs. Reversal days on the charts signal the final exhaustion of the
bullish or bearish forces that drove the market previously. Respect them,
and respect even more "weekly" and "monthly," reversals.
12. Keep your
technical systems simple. Complicated
systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance.
13. Respect
and embrace the very normal 50-62% retracements that take prices back to major
trends. If a trade is missed, wait
patiently for the market to retrace. Far more often than not, retracements
happen... just as we are about to give up hope that they shall not.
14. An understanding
of mass psychology is often more important than an understanding of economics. Markets are driven by human beings making human errors
and also making super-human insights.
15. Establish
initial positions on strength in bull markets and on weakness in bear markets. The first "addition" should also be added on
strength as the market shows the trend to be working. Henceforth,
subsequent additions are to be added on retracements.
16. Bear
markets are more violent than are bull markets and so also are their retracements.
17. Be
patient with winning trades; be enormously impatient with losing trades. Remember it is quite possible to make large sums
trading/investing if we are "right" only 30% of the time, as long
as our losses are small and our profits are large.
18. The
market is the sum total of the wisdom ... and the ignorance...of all of those
who deal in it; and we
dare not argue with the market's wisdom. If we learn nothing more than this
we've learned much indeed.
19. Do more
of that which is working and less of that which is not: If a market is strong, buy more; if a market is weak, sell more.
New highs are to be bought; new lows sold.
20. The hard
trade is the right trade: If it is
easy to sell, don't; and if it is easy to buy, don't. Do the trade that is
hard to do and that which the crowd finds objectionable. Peter Steidelmeyer
taught us this twenty five years ago and it holds truer now than then.
21. There is
never one cockroach! This is
the "winning" new rule submitted by our friend, Tom Powell.
22.
All rules are meant to be broken:
The trick is knowing when... and how infrequently this rule may be
invoked!
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