The large Cup and Handle pattern (See chart below) which I have been watching form over recent months on the EURUSD appears to have completed with the sharp move up during the latter stages of last week. Now is the crucial stage for this, does it shoot straight up towards the measured target around the high 1.4000s, or at least some way towards that? Or does it come back and re-test the break at 1.3860 (Or even overshoot)? - I favour the likelihood of a re-test of the break at some point, this would actually be the more healthy option for continued strength.
One has to also consider the possibility of this being a false break prior to a sharp correction (No one ever said this was easy). Critical resistance is being approached on the longer-term patterns. 1.4040/50 is a daily closing resistance (See posting from Feb 28) and 1.4285 is the prior high in the downtrend since 2008, both these levels could be key.
Personally I favour the move to the high 1.48s in the next few months, but cannot help thinking we may still see some interesting price action, which has the potential to tease rather than please in the next couple of weeks.
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I made this trade on 3-2. Still looks good. http://jamesolivertrades.blogspot.com/2011/03/euro-futures.html
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